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Weekly Fundamental Reports
US Economic Indicators PreviewThe Fed's Beige Book is likely to describe the pace of economic growth to have moderated further, especially since manufacturing activity is slowing in many regions, despite a possible pickup in car production. Consumer spending could have increased modestly, amid consumer confidence indicators having plummeted and the labour market conditions being weak. Price pressure could have eased further, as the ability to pass on price increases might have abated due to the low economic momentum. |
EMU Economic Indicators PreviewAfter having raised the refinancing rate in July, the ECB Council retained a hawkish policy stance at the August meeting by emphasizing inflation risks. However, as the debt crisis had become more acute in early August and financial markets appeared extremely vulnerable, the council reintroduced measures to provide liquidity on a longer term basis and re-started its purchases of government bonds (Securities Markets Program). At the September meeting, the ECB will probably soften its position as the pace of growth in the euro area and the world economy is slowing and the HICP inflation trend seems to have turned. New ECB staff projections are likely to back the return to a neutral stance. |
September off to an Inauspicious StartAugust managed to end on a reasonably hopeful note after the drubbing that started the month, but September has started on a decidedly downbeat note. U.S. and European data continue to point to stalling recoveries and the market debate over whether it's merely a slowdown or the start of a double dip recession has been reengaged. While it's too soon to say which way the outlook may break, both prospects are decidedly negative for risk sentiment. Looking ahead, there seems to be little light at the end of the tunnel either, as governments continue to pursue austerity and deficit reduction measures even in the face of slowing growth. Pres. Obama is set to deliver a long overdue job creation plan next week, but it's unlikely to result in meaningful stimulus measures given the intractable opposition of House Republicans. While the Continent and Washington fiddle, risk appetite and financial markets seem likely to see further distress in the weeks ahead. |
Doves in The AscendancyIn the absence of any major geopolitical upsets, global risk assets spent much of the week clawing back some of their August losses - only to be undone by the release of a much weakerthan- expected US jobs report on Friday. The continuing sharp swings in sentiment underline just how febrile market sentiment remains, with ongoing uncertainties about global growth prospects and the EU sovereign debt crisis continuing to unsettle. |
Weekly Economic and Financial CommentaryFears of recession increased on Friday as the BLS reported that August nonfarm payrolls did not grow at all with net job losses reported in a number of important sectors such as retail trade, manufacturing, construction, information services, and government. The 48,000 jobs lost in the information sector were largely due to the Verizon strike, however, and are expected to bounce back in September. More troubling for the outlook on consumer spending was the decline in average hourly earnings and average weekly hours in August that will further squeeze consumer purchasing power. |
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